Conference Proceedings
20. Elshall A.S., M. Ye, S.A. Kranz, J. Harrington, X. Yang, Y. Wan, and M. Maltrud, (2022), Application-specific model selection and model weighting of global climate models with application to regional environmental management of red tide, A42M-05 - A42M - Regional Climate: Modeling, Analysis, and Impacts I Oral, December 15, Chicago, IL and online (Oral presentation),
agu.confex.com/agu/fm22/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1069896
19. Elshall A.S., M. Ye, S.A. Kranz, J. Harrington, X. Yang, Y. Wan, and M. Maltrud, (2021), Machine learning for red tide prediction in the Gulf of Mexico along the West Florida Shelf, GC35K-0814: Policy-Relevant High-Resolution Regional Earth System Modeling: Development, Evaluation, and Application II Poster, December 15, New Orleans, LA and online (poster presentation), doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10509597.1
18. Elshall A.S., et al. (2020) Understanding and managing harmful algal bloom in West Florida
Shelf using E3SM Earth system model, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020, H069-02:
Frontiers in Water Quality Science II, H069-02, December 9, online (eLightning presentation).
17. Ye, M. and A.S. Elshall (2019), Bayesian inference and predictive performance of soil respiration models in the presence of model discrepancy, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019, B078 - Multi-hypothesis studies of ecological and hydrological systems, December 9-13, 2019, San Francisco, California.
16. Elshall, A.S., A. D. Arik, G. Chun, L. Bremer, K. Burnett, A. El-Kadi and C. Wada (2018), Aligning research and management with policy for the protection of Hawai‘i’s water future, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2018, H33E-05: Groundwater Sustainability Studies: Integrating Monitoring, Modeling, and Policy II, December 10-15, 2018, Washington D.C. (oral presentation).
15. Elshall, A.S. and M. Ye (2017), Numerical daemons of Monte Carlo based Bayesian model evidence estimators, SIAM Southeastern Atlantic Section Conference (SIAM-SEAS), Session: Theoretical and Computational Issues in Geosciences and Engineering, March 18-19, 2017, Tallahassee, Florida (oral presentation).
14. Elshall, A.S., M. Ye, G.-Y. Niu and G. A. Barron-Gafford (2016), Numerical daemons in Monte Carlo estimation of Bayesian model evidence with application to soil respiration models, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016, Session H41B-1303: Towards intelligent decision making in Earth System modeling, December 12-16, 2016, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
13. Ye. M., A.S. Elshall, M. Ye, G. Tang and S., Samani (2016), Making steppingstones out of stumbling blocks: A new Bayesian model evidence estimator with application to groundwater transport model selection, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016, H08: Advances in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Earth and Environmental Systems Models, December 12-16, 2016, San Francisco, California (oral presentation).
12. Elshall, A.S., M. Ye, G.-Y. Niu and G. A. Barron-Gafford (2015), Bayesian multimodel inference of soil microbial respiration models: Theory, application and future prospective, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015, Session B22A-06: Constraining Ecosystem Carbon Uptake and Long-Term Storage with Integrated Modeling, Experiment, and Observation IV, December 14-18, 2015, San Francisco, California (oral presentation).
11. Ye, M., S. Samani, A.S. Elshall, G. Tang, X. Niu and A. A. Moghaddam (2015), Exploring model complexity for column experiments using model selection criteria, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015, Session H13A-1493: Advances and Breakthroughs in Hydrogeology III Posters, December 14-18, 2015, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
10. Elshall, A.S., M. Ye, G.-Y. Niu, A.S. and G.A. Barron-Gafford (2014), Quantification of model uncertainty in modeling mechanisms of soil microbial respiration pulses to simulate Birch effect, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2014, IN43B-3695: Frontiers in Uncertainty Quantification for Geophysical Modeling Posters, December 18 , 2014, San Francisco, California (poster presentation)
9. Elshall, A.S., F.T.-C. Tsai and J.S. Hanor (2013), Indicator geostatistical approach to reconstruct geological architecture of the Baton Rouge aquifer-fault system, Louisiana, 63rd Annual Convention of the Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies and the Gulf Coast Section of SEPM, October 6-8 , 2013, New Orleans, Louisiana (oral presentation).
8. Pham, H., A.S. Elshall, F. T.-C. Tsai and L. Yan (2013), Parallel inverse groundwater modeling using CMA-ES, World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, May 19-23 , 2013, Cincinnati, Ohio (oral presentation).
7. Tsai, F.T.-C., A. Mani, H. Pham, E. Beigi, A.S. Elshall and N. Chitsazan (2013), Characterization of siliciclastic aquifer-fault system for Florida parishes, Southeastern Louisiana, World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, May 19-23 , 2013, Cincinnati, Ohio (oral presentation).
6. Pham, Hai, A.S. Elshall, F.T.-C. Tsai1 and L. Yan (2012), Local derivative-free parallel computing method for solving the inverse problem in ground water modeling, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2012, Session H21A-1164: Advanced Computational Modeling Paradigms for Hydrologic Systems Posters, December 3-7, 2012, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
5. Tsai, F.T.-C., A.S. Elshall and J.S. Hanor (2012), A hierarchical multi-model approach for uncertainty segregation, prioritization and comparative evaluation of competing modeling propositions, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2012, Session H43B-1326: Complexity, Falsifiability, Transparency, and Uncertainty in Environmental Modeling II Posters , December 3-7 , 2012, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
4. Elshall, A. S., F.T.-C. Tsai and J.S. Hanor (2012), Hydrogeophysical data fusion and geostatistical approach to characterize the geological structure of the Baton Rouge aquifer system in Louisiana, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2012, Session H13B-1336: Characterization of Groundwater Systems III Posters, December 3-7, 2012, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
3. Tsai, F.T.-C. and A.S. Elshall (2012), A Bayesian model averaging method to characterize the Baton Rouge aquifer system, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, May 20-24, 2012, Albuquerque, New Mexico (oral presentation).
2. Elshall, A. S., F.T.-C. Tsai and J.S. Hanor (2011), Uncertainty and characterization of the Baton Rouge fault system in a Bayesian framework, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, Session H13A- 1173: Characterization of Fault Zone Hydrology III Posters, December 3-7 , 2011, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
1. Tsai, F.T.-C. and A.S. Elshall (2011), A hierarchical Bayesian model averaging approach to cope with sources of uncertainty in conceptual ground water models, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress: pp. 1089-1098, doi. 10.1061/41173(414)112 (conference paper).
Invited Presentations
10. Elshall, A.S. (2017), Bayesian model selection of microbial soil respiration models, Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii Manoa, June 9, 2017, Honolulu, Hawaii (invited seminar).
9. Elshall, A.S. (2017), Model-based management of groundwater resources under uncertainty, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Hawaii Manoa, May 11-12, 2017, University of Hawaii Manoa (invited talk).
8. Elshall, A.S. (2017), Theory and application of Bayesian multimodel inference with application to microbial soil respiration models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute, Florida State University, April 11, 2017, Tallahassee, Florida (invited seminar).
7. Elshall, A.S. (2016), Multi-model analysis of water resources systems, Department of Civil Engineering and Construction, Bradley University, March 25, 2016, Peoria, Illinois (invited talk).
6. Elshall, A.S. (2017), Numerical daemons of Monte Carlo estimators of Bayesian model evidence, Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, March 9, 2017, Tallahassee, Florida (invited seminar).
5. Elshall, A.S. (2015), Bayesian multimodel analysis in geoscience, Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Applied Geosciences, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, February 13, 2015, Karlsruhe, Germany (invited seminar).
4. Elshall, A.S. (2015), Bayesian multimodel analysis in geoscience, Water and Earth System Science cluster, Center of Applied Geoscience, University of Tübingen, February 9-12, 2015, Tübingen, Germany (invited seminar).
3. Elshall, A.S. (2014), Bayesian data analysis: Evaluating candidate hypotheses for generating soil respiration pulses, Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, November 12, 2014, Tallahassee, Florida (invited seminar).
2. Ye, M. and A.S. Elshall (2014), A Bayesian framework for environmental uncertainty quantification with application to soil carbon modeling, Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, August 4-8, 2014, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (invited talk).
1. Elshall, A.S., H. Pham, F. T.-C. Tsai and L. Yan (2013), High performance computing for stochastic modeling of groundwater systems using CMA-ES, 2nd Annual High Performance Computing User Symposium, Louisiana State University Center for Computation and Technology, and Louisiana Optical Network Initiative (LONI), June 12 , 2013, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (invited talk).
Selected Presentations:
4. Elshall, A.S., M. Ye, X. Zhang, G.-Y. Niu, G. A. Barron-Gafford and M. Pavao-Zuckerman (2014), Modeling the Mechanisms of Soil Microbial Respiration Pulses to Simulate “Birch Effect”, 2nd Annual Florida State University Postdoctoral Symposium, September 19 , 2014, Tallahassee, Florida (poster).
3. Elshall, A.S., F. T.-C. Tsai and J. S. Hanor (2013), Reconstructing Baton Rouge aquifer-fault hydrostratigraphy using indicator geostatistics, Seventh Annual Louisiana Groundwater and Water Resources Symposium, Baton Rouge Geological Society and Louisiana Geological Survey, May 8, 2013, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (oral talk).
2. Elshall, A.S. and F.T.-C. Tsai (2011), Geophysical and geostatistical approaches to subsurface characterization of the Baton Rouge area, Fifth Annual Louisiana Groundwater, Coastal Geology and Subsidence-Land Loss Symposium, Baton Rouge Geological Society & Louisiana Geological Survey, January 11-12 , 2011, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (oral talk).
1. Elshall, A.S. and M. Finkel (2009), Design optimization of a groundwater remediation system using Evolution Strategies, Evolution and Ecology Forum Annual Meeting, December 3-4 , 2009, Tübingen,
Germany (poster).
20. Elshall A.S., M. Ye, S.A. Kranz, J. Harrington, X. Yang, Y. Wan, and M. Maltrud, (2022), Application-specific model selection and model weighting of global climate models with application to regional environmental management of red tide, A42M-05 - A42M - Regional Climate: Modeling, Analysis, and Impacts I Oral, December 15, Chicago, IL and online (Oral presentation),
agu.confex.com/agu/fm22/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1069896
19. Elshall A.S., M. Ye, S.A. Kranz, J. Harrington, X. Yang, Y. Wan, and M. Maltrud, (2021), Machine learning for red tide prediction in the Gulf of Mexico along the West Florida Shelf, GC35K-0814: Policy-Relevant High-Resolution Regional Earth System Modeling: Development, Evaluation, and Application II Poster, December 15, New Orleans, LA and online (poster presentation), doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10509597.1
18. Elshall A.S., et al. (2020) Understanding and managing harmful algal bloom in West Florida
Shelf using E3SM Earth system model, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020, H069-02:
Frontiers in Water Quality Science II, H069-02, December 9, online (eLightning presentation).
17. Ye, M. and A.S. Elshall (2019), Bayesian inference and predictive performance of soil respiration models in the presence of model discrepancy, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019, B078 - Multi-hypothesis studies of ecological and hydrological systems, December 9-13, 2019, San Francisco, California.
16. Elshall, A.S., A. D. Arik, G. Chun, L. Bremer, K. Burnett, A. El-Kadi and C. Wada (2018), Aligning research and management with policy for the protection of Hawai‘i’s water future, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2018, H33E-05: Groundwater Sustainability Studies: Integrating Monitoring, Modeling, and Policy II, December 10-15, 2018, Washington D.C. (oral presentation).
15. Elshall, A.S. and M. Ye (2017), Numerical daemons of Monte Carlo based Bayesian model evidence estimators, SIAM Southeastern Atlantic Section Conference (SIAM-SEAS), Session: Theoretical and Computational Issues in Geosciences and Engineering, March 18-19, 2017, Tallahassee, Florida (oral presentation).
14. Elshall, A.S., M. Ye, G.-Y. Niu and G. A. Barron-Gafford (2016), Numerical daemons in Monte Carlo estimation of Bayesian model evidence with application to soil respiration models, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016, Session H41B-1303: Towards intelligent decision making in Earth System modeling, December 12-16, 2016, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
13. Ye. M., A.S. Elshall, M. Ye, G. Tang and S., Samani (2016), Making steppingstones out of stumbling blocks: A new Bayesian model evidence estimator with application to groundwater transport model selection, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2016, H08: Advances in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Earth and Environmental Systems Models, December 12-16, 2016, San Francisco, California (oral presentation).
12. Elshall, A.S., M. Ye, G.-Y. Niu and G. A. Barron-Gafford (2015), Bayesian multimodel inference of soil microbial respiration models: Theory, application and future prospective, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015, Session B22A-06: Constraining Ecosystem Carbon Uptake and Long-Term Storage with Integrated Modeling, Experiment, and Observation IV, December 14-18, 2015, San Francisco, California (oral presentation).
11. Ye, M., S. Samani, A.S. Elshall, G. Tang, X. Niu and A. A. Moghaddam (2015), Exploring model complexity for column experiments using model selection criteria, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2015, Session H13A-1493: Advances and Breakthroughs in Hydrogeology III Posters, December 14-18, 2015, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
10. Elshall, A.S., M. Ye, G.-Y. Niu, A.S. and G.A. Barron-Gafford (2014), Quantification of model uncertainty in modeling mechanisms of soil microbial respiration pulses to simulate Birch effect, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2014, IN43B-3695: Frontiers in Uncertainty Quantification for Geophysical Modeling Posters, December 18 , 2014, San Francisco, California (poster presentation)
9. Elshall, A.S., F.T.-C. Tsai and J.S. Hanor (2013), Indicator geostatistical approach to reconstruct geological architecture of the Baton Rouge aquifer-fault system, Louisiana, 63rd Annual Convention of the Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies and the Gulf Coast Section of SEPM, October 6-8 , 2013, New Orleans, Louisiana (oral presentation).
8. Pham, H., A.S. Elshall, F. T.-C. Tsai and L. Yan (2013), Parallel inverse groundwater modeling using CMA-ES, World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, May 19-23 , 2013, Cincinnati, Ohio (oral presentation).
7. Tsai, F.T.-C., A. Mani, H. Pham, E. Beigi, A.S. Elshall and N. Chitsazan (2013), Characterization of siliciclastic aquifer-fault system for Florida parishes, Southeastern Louisiana, World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, May 19-23 , 2013, Cincinnati, Ohio (oral presentation).
6. Pham, Hai, A.S. Elshall, F.T.-C. Tsai1 and L. Yan (2012), Local derivative-free parallel computing method for solving the inverse problem in ground water modeling, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2012, Session H21A-1164: Advanced Computational Modeling Paradigms for Hydrologic Systems Posters, December 3-7, 2012, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
5. Tsai, F.T.-C., A.S. Elshall and J.S. Hanor (2012), A hierarchical multi-model approach for uncertainty segregation, prioritization and comparative evaluation of competing modeling propositions, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2012, Session H43B-1326: Complexity, Falsifiability, Transparency, and Uncertainty in Environmental Modeling II Posters , December 3-7 , 2012, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
4. Elshall, A. S., F.T.-C. Tsai and J.S. Hanor (2012), Hydrogeophysical data fusion and geostatistical approach to characterize the geological structure of the Baton Rouge aquifer system in Louisiana, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2012, Session H13B-1336: Characterization of Groundwater Systems III Posters, December 3-7, 2012, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
3. Tsai, F.T.-C. and A.S. Elshall (2012), A Bayesian model averaging method to characterize the Baton Rouge aquifer system, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, May 20-24, 2012, Albuquerque, New Mexico (oral presentation).
2. Elshall, A. S., F.T.-C. Tsai and J.S. Hanor (2011), Uncertainty and characterization of the Baton Rouge fault system in a Bayesian framework, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, Session H13A- 1173: Characterization of Fault Zone Hydrology III Posters, December 3-7 , 2011, San Francisco, California (poster presentation).
1. Tsai, F.T.-C. and A.S. Elshall (2011), A hierarchical Bayesian model averaging approach to cope with sources of uncertainty in conceptual ground water models, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress: pp. 1089-1098, doi. 10.1061/41173(414)112 (conference paper).
Invited Presentations
10. Elshall, A.S. (2017), Bayesian model selection of microbial soil respiration models, Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii Manoa, June 9, 2017, Honolulu, Hawaii (invited seminar).
9. Elshall, A.S. (2017), Model-based management of groundwater resources under uncertainty, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Hawaii Manoa, May 11-12, 2017, University of Hawaii Manoa (invited talk).
8. Elshall, A.S. (2017), Theory and application of Bayesian multimodel inference with application to microbial soil respiration models, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute, Florida State University, April 11, 2017, Tallahassee, Florida (invited seminar).
7. Elshall, A.S. (2016), Multi-model analysis of water resources systems, Department of Civil Engineering and Construction, Bradley University, March 25, 2016, Peoria, Illinois (invited talk).
6. Elshall, A.S. (2017), Numerical daemons of Monte Carlo estimators of Bayesian model evidence, Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, March 9, 2017, Tallahassee, Florida (invited seminar).
5. Elshall, A.S. (2015), Bayesian multimodel analysis in geoscience, Department of Engineering Geology, Institute of Applied Geosciences, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, February 13, 2015, Karlsruhe, Germany (invited seminar).
4. Elshall, A.S. (2015), Bayesian multimodel analysis in geoscience, Water and Earth System Science cluster, Center of Applied Geoscience, University of Tübingen, February 9-12, 2015, Tübingen, Germany (invited seminar).
3. Elshall, A.S. (2014), Bayesian data analysis: Evaluating candidate hypotheses for generating soil respiration pulses, Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, November 12, 2014, Tallahassee, Florida (invited seminar).
2. Ye, M. and A.S. Elshall (2014), A Bayesian framework for environmental uncertainty quantification with application to soil carbon modeling, Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, August 4-8, 2014, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (invited talk).
1. Elshall, A.S., H. Pham, F. T.-C. Tsai and L. Yan (2013), High performance computing for stochastic modeling of groundwater systems using CMA-ES, 2nd Annual High Performance Computing User Symposium, Louisiana State University Center for Computation and Technology, and Louisiana Optical Network Initiative (LONI), June 12 , 2013, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (invited talk).
Selected Presentations:
4. Elshall, A.S., M. Ye, X. Zhang, G.-Y. Niu, G. A. Barron-Gafford and M. Pavao-Zuckerman (2014), Modeling the Mechanisms of Soil Microbial Respiration Pulses to Simulate “Birch Effect”, 2nd Annual Florida State University Postdoctoral Symposium, September 19 , 2014, Tallahassee, Florida (poster).
3. Elshall, A.S., F. T.-C. Tsai and J. S. Hanor (2013), Reconstructing Baton Rouge aquifer-fault hydrostratigraphy using indicator geostatistics, Seventh Annual Louisiana Groundwater and Water Resources Symposium, Baton Rouge Geological Society and Louisiana Geological Survey, May 8, 2013, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (oral talk).
2. Elshall, A.S. and F.T.-C. Tsai (2011), Geophysical and geostatistical approaches to subsurface characterization of the Baton Rouge area, Fifth Annual Louisiana Groundwater, Coastal Geology and Subsidence-Land Loss Symposium, Baton Rouge Geological Society & Louisiana Geological Survey, January 11-12 , 2011, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (oral talk).
1. Elshall, A.S. and M. Finkel (2009), Design optimization of a groundwater remediation system using Evolution Strategies, Evolution and Ecology Forum Annual Meeting, December 3-4 , 2009, Tübingen,
Germany (poster).